The impact of mismatches at Grand SlamsThis is also supported by the discrepancies in the stats between the fourth round matches (at which stage there are 16 players remaining) onwards at Grand Slam tournaments and the matches prior to this stage. It is thus no surprise that top ten players have a higher implied chance of winning their opening round Grand Slam matches than at lower level ATP events. They are very unlikely to face opposition close to their ability level in the opening rounds, and the five-set format produces fewer shocks. Daniil Medvedev and David Goffin even produced over a 15% margin of difference on this front.These numbers would appear to indicate that the format of Grand Slams is stacked in favour of higher ranked players. How does this affect the ATP top ten?A comparison between the mean implied closing line win percentage for the current ATP top ten players in the opening round of Grand Slam matches and other tournaments from the start of 2019 appears to support this argument:Mean closing line implied win percentage for Grand Slam opening round matchesMean closing line implied win percentage for opening round matches at other tournamentsAs you can see above, all ten players in the current ATP top ten had a higher mean closing line implied win percentage in their opening round of Grand Slam events than they achieved in the other tournaments they competed in during this time. These early tournament mismatches are exacerbated by the fact that they are contested over the best of five sets as opposed to three – generally in most sports, shorter formats tend to produce less of an advantage for ‘better’ players.
Any and all content on the website (desktop and mobile), including sports odds, are proprietary and may not be copied or disseminated without the express written consent of Pinnacle. The sets themselves were also tighter, featuring an average of 0.21 tiebreaks per set and 0.77 per match compared to 0.18 and 0.64 respectively beforehand.All of this suggests that it is completely evident that the first few rounds at Grand Slam tournaments feature absurd mismatches and can arguably be treated as virtual byes for the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.Impyrial Holdings Ltd, 8A Pitmans Alley Main Street, Gibraltar GX11 1AA, acting for processing purposes on behalf of Ragnarok Corporation N.V.Pinnacle.com operates with the licence of Ragnarok Corporation N.V., Pletterijweg 43, Willemstad, Curaçao, which is licensed by the government of Curacao under the Licence 8048/JAZ2013-013 issued for the provision of sports betting and casino.Online sports betting from Pinnacle bookmakers – your premier international sportsbook © 2004–2021 PinnaclePinnacle, Pinnacle Sports, Pinbet, Pinny and all other derivative marks are registered trademarks of Pinnacle.
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